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Last week’s column presented concerns about President Obama’s plans to increase our reliance on national sources of oil and natural gas. He also presented a strong argument for the continued development of the American clean energy economy by speaking out for renewable energy and efficiency.

Obama declared: “ Our three year partnership with the private sector has already positioned America to be the world’s leading manufacturer of high tech batteries. . . Because of federal investments renewable energy use has doubled. And thousands of Americans have jobs because of it.”

He also indicated “ I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China or Germany because we refuse to make the same commitment here,” and called for “passing clean energy tax credits and create these jobs.” He seeks Congressional support for a clean energy standard which would create a market for innovation. Such a standard has been introduced numerous times and never gained Congressional approval.

He plans to allow the development of clean energy on public land to power three million homes. Efforts to develop renewable energy projects on public lands have been stymied by objections of communities where the facilities would be located. To achieve his objective the President has directed the Department of Interior to issue permits for renewable energy generating facilities.

Using the Department of Defense to stimulate innovation is a common means of demonstrating the practical applications of technology and creating an awareness of the technology’s benefits to society. The navy is purchasing clean energy capacity to power a quarter million homes a year.

With 25 million acres and a variety of bases under Pentagon control, the sites are already disturbed. They offer numerous opportunities for renewable energy installations while lowering operating costs and reducing their vulnerability to energy interruptions. They also expand the market for renewables.

In his latest State of the Union address President Obama laid out his energy agenda which included the strange and perhaps ominous statement: “This country needs an all-out, all-of-the above strategy that develops every available source of American energy - a strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper and full of new jobs”

Given questions regarding reliable sources of energy, the poor economy and the desperate job situation, the call to develop every available source of American energy has a ring of boosterism that could produce a level of energy development that would increase our commitment to fossil fuels, invest heavily in the existing infrastructure and leave in its wake a wide swath of adverse environmental impacts.

Obama’s call to open more than 75% of our potential offshore oil and gas resources for exploration was linked to the importance of breaking the country’s dependence on foreign oil. Even if the combination of offshore oil and oil shale production reaches an expected level of 7 million barrels per day by 2020, it would still fall far short of the 19 million barrels we consume today.

His claim of having supplies of natural gas for nearly 100 years seems overly optimistic given the Department of Energy’s estimates that Marcellus shale will yield only six years supply not the previously projected 17 years. While the federal government provided funding to develop technologies to harvest fossil fuels from shale, no mention was made that it excluded the industry from EPA oversight of its impact on air and water quality.

While requiring all companies drilling for gas on public lands to disclose the chemicals they use was offered as a reassurance that the resource will be developed without putting the health and safety of our citizens at risk, the impact of existing projects on private lands has already raised alarms. Ground water contamination throughout the United States, disposal of toxic fracking waste water and reports of earthquakes apparently coming from waste water wells suggest citizen health and safety is not adequately protected.

While boosting the economy, harvesting sand for the fracking industry is raising citizen ire. Hydraulic fracking involves drilling deep wells sunk into gas bearing shale rock and pumping a pressurized mixture of water, sand and chemicals into the well to fracture the rock and free the gas.

In Wisconsin at least 20 new sand mines are being proposed, including some approaching 1000 acres in size. Citizens living near the operations are dismayed over the loss of scenic vistas, blowing silica sand dust, around the clock operations of noise, lights and heavy truck traffic and water pollution.

Similar sand deposits are located near Starved Rock State Park and in Ogle County in Illinois; plans exist to expand operations in these areas. Citizens concerns are similar to those in Wisconsin.

To be fair, the Obama energy plan does include support for renewable energy sources and energy efficiency. But we will have to wait to see what elements of the plans are put into action and whether or not the renewable portion is substantial enough to be a major contributor to a clean, sustainable energy future.

Capturing the sun’s energy for home or business use is simple - south facing windows will provide some heat. Adding solar thermal collectors will provide hot water or additional interior building heat. Somewhat more sophisticated is generating electricity with building integrated PV panels. Adding an appropriate amount of insulation, insulating glass, LED lighting, energy efficient appliances and an energy storage system will make a home or building energy independent.

We know how to do it but the national commitment to subsidizing fossil fuels along with low natural gas prices limits the widespread acceptance of this approach. If concerns over peak oil, climate change and environmental damage from fossil fuel consumption were accurately reflected in the price of energy, the new energy paradigm would be more widely implemented.

Dramatic price reductions in the cost of PV modules occurred this year as the marketplace has been flooded with low costs panels from China just as other manufacturers were increasing production forcing a number solar PV manufacturers to close or cease production. It appeared that some firms were selling panels below the cost of manufacturing them.

According to Solarbuzz roughly 25% of the solar module prices are below $2.00/watt. The lowest price cited was for multicrystalline panels at $1.14/watt. With module costs of 35- 40% of the system costs, PV system costs are at an all time low.

The WTO is considering imposing an anti-dumping duty against Chinese modules which would raise the price of solar modules. According to Chris Brown of Asian Cleantech Gateway, China recently announced a national goal of 15 GW of installed PV by 2015 which represents a 50% increase from an earlier plan. China has a production capacity around 40 GW per year while its existing domestic market is about 2 GW. Stimulating domestic demand will reduce exports and may increase the cost of solar panels.

Installed system costs will also rise if federal or state incentives supporting renewable energy were either reduced or eliminated.

Kevin Bullis believes future PV manufacturing competition will focus on upgrading panel efficiency and reducing the cost involved in installing solar panels. Installers in the U.S. point out that eliminating differences in local permitting standards would also reduce costs.

With economic prospects and job opportunities looking bleak, it would seem we could put the excess solar module manufacturing inventory to good use.

Many people can afford solar installations today if they choose them rather than buying larger TVs and fancier electronic gadgets which increase electrical demand. If people have extra cash and find themselves unsure where to invest it, making a solar investment will provide a measure of energy security for years to come.

Another energy investment is to start replacing incandescent and compact flourescent bulbs with the ever improving LED lighting systems. Their costs are dropping and the quality of lighting is improving dramatically. A friend recently calculated that if all lighting in this country were replaced with LEDs 150 of the 1000 large utility scaled generators would no longer be needed.

It is estimated that the average American family uses about 1000 kWh of electricity each month. Home lighting consumption is estimated at between 9% and 16% and commercial and office lighting can be as high as 24%. While estimates vary, they do provide some idea of the importance of lighting in our lives and the opportunities to cut consumption for economic and environmental benefits.

While turning off lights was a common request from parents in American households, its popularity waned in prosperous times but could return with the economic decline. This time with compact florescent bulbs the request should include the modification of “if you plan to leave the room and not return within 15 minutes please turn of the lights”. A CFL uses a surge of energy when first turned on which will shorten its life if frequently cycled. With incandescent bulbs disappearing from the marketplace, the 15 minute admonition may prevail. However, LEDs could become the prevailing lighting mode. They can be turned on and off frequently with no impact on bulb life or light quality.

We have all become accustomed to LEDs since they appeared in flashlights. Their use continues to spread as Christmas tree lights, vehicle taillights and headlights, decorative outdoor lighting and traffic control lights.

An engineer friend, Victor Zaderej, informed us that in many areas of China large steel buildings without windows serve as greenhouses and use LED lighting to stimulate plant growth. Others have informed us of factories, assembly plants and warehouses illuminated by LEDs.

Our demonstration greenhouse is PV powered and lit with LEDs. For the moment we have the world’s only known installation of an LED grow light system fitted to a metallic power strip which allows bulbs to be shifted to any site desired on it. The new system will hit the market next spring. While of no great significance it is fun to be able to say we are the only place in the world where light is being provided with this new system.

What is the claim to fame for LEDs? A high quality LED can last up to 50,000 hours eliminating the need for frequent bulb replacements, saving both time and money for the user. The disappearing incandescent bulbs only last up to 3000 hours while CFLs can last up to 9000 hours.

In terms of efficient energy use, incandescents only use 5% of the supplied electricity to produce light while the remaining energy is dissipated as heat. CFLs have an efficiency of 25% while LEDs convert 50% of the electricity to light, yet release enough heat to necessitate the use of a heat sink to protect the bulb.

LEDs use direct current so an electronic device is included in a unit to convert AC power from the grid to DC. Considering the proliferation of DC powered electronics in homes, at some point it may make sense for buildings to be DC powered to reduce the need for conversion units.

A small percentage of people appear sensitive to a flickering effect from LEDs not visible to the naked eye. According to an article by Brent Polich in Environmental Building News, it results from the 60 hertz cycle characteristic of our AC power. Complaints include eyestrain, headaches and slower reading speed and comprehension.

Since LEDs are electronic devices which include potentially harmful chemicals, they need to be disposed in the same way as an electronic device.

As costs continue to drop, light quality improves, and applications expand LEDs will play increased roles in daily lives.

A New Year’s resolution for a local sustainable food system
by
Robert Vogl and Sonia Vogl

If you have ever spent time fretting about the state of the world and wondering why the policies and actions taken by our leaders seldom address the everyday concerns of most citizens, maybe its time to decide to do something positive for your community.

About three years ago two women, Pam Warhurst and Mary Clear, came up with a simple plan to do something positive for their town of Todmorden in the United Kingdom. They initiated a project to rebuild the local economy and asked people to join them in an effort to improve the lives of the people in the former industrial town.

They focused on increasing the available supply of local foods. Using a small amount of their own money to get started, they assumed with success additional funds would become available to support their efforts.

While many communities have initiated local foods projects what sets their efforts apart is their method of capturing public interest. Their first 18 months focused on planting vegetables and fruits in the town center and placing signs at the sites telling citizens to feel free to take some.

A bed of rhubarb was one of their first plantings assuming that people were familiar with it and would recognize when it was ripe for picking. Fruits and vegetables were planted on the lawn of a health clinic with the expectation that people would make the connection between healthy eating and healthy living. A pinch of fennel along a route they walked to school provided students with a taste of licorice.

Vegetable beds were planted near the entry to the police station - perhaps to help convince citizens that the signs indicating the vegetables were free for the taking were legitimate.

Eventually over 70 large local food beds were scattered around the former mill town and the movement gained wider acceptance.

The project is in its third year and goes by the name of the Incredible Edibles. Their goal of being the first town in the U.K. to be self-sufficient in food by 2018 adds another unique element to their efforts. Roughly 6000 of the town’s 17,000 citizens have signed on to the project.

Planting and tending the gardens has produced 50 new jobs. Two orchards consisting of over 500 trees have been planted. At 41 homes chickens are being raised for eggs with the intent of having the community produce 30,000 eggs per week. Students at each of the schools are served locally produced meat, vegetables and fruit at lunch.

The movement extends beyond beds of vegetables and fruits and includes courses such as gardening and food preservation. A fish farm is being built to provide food and teach high school students the skills necessary to operate it. A 50 meter long hoop house will produce a larger volume of vegetables for the community.

Local farmers, farmer’s markets and citizens have all benefitted from the Incredible Edibles project. For more information, google Incredible Edibles and Todmorden to check out the range of newspaper articles about it.

A new Rockford venture recycling used wind turbines
by
Robert and Sonia Vogl, Ph.D.s

The arrival of three used Danish wind turbines represents the latest renewable energy effort being implemented by Freedom Field, the nonprofit organization formed to facilitate the development of renewable energy solutions for the region.

A partnership between Freedom Field, Northern Illinois University’s Outreach Program and a newly formed local company, RockWind LLC, has been formed to upgrade and sell the units which can supply about 400,000 kilowatt hours per year. The output is estimated to provide power to serve 50 homes.

The units are not intended to be part of wind farms. Units supplying commercial wind farms such as that near Paw Paw are nearly 400 feet tall while the used turbines, at 150 feet, are less than half that size. The intended market includes acceptable sites serving schools, colleges, industrial parks and hospitals to help moderate anticipated increases in the price of electricity.

The units were taken out of service after half their useful life as Europe has decided to replace 250 kilowatt units with 1.5 MW units. The change was initiated to maximize electrical output from the limited amount of land suitable for wind farms.

Dick Johnson, director of NIU’s Rock program, indicated they can rebuild the turbines to be better than when they were new. For example, metal ball bearings in the units can be slightly deformed by electric currents; replacing them with newly designed ceramic ball bearings eliminates the problem.

If the program proves successful, funds recovered from the resale of the units will be used to fund the continuing operations of Freedom Field. Another potential outcome of the program is the establishment of a Turbine Testing program to assess the performance of rebuilt turbines. With success the $200,000 investment by Winnebago County to purchase the turbines could prove helpful in rebuilding the local economy.

While some dismay was expressed about rebuilding used wind turbines, a successful project could lead to additional manufacturing in Rockford. For example, Newton, Iowa, former home of Maytag appliance manufacturing, successfully landed a Siemens wind turbine nacelle manufacturing plant in 2008. On February 2, 2011, the Tindall Corp. closed on 230 acres of property near Newton to set up a factory to manufacture concrete bases for turbines used in commercial wind farms.

Few people realize how intense the competition is to secure new manufacturing facilities. Greenville, Michigan, was successful in a competition with 27 states to become the location of two PV manufacturing facilities serving Energy Conversion Devices. The plants, designed to manufacture a total of 60 MW, have provided far fewer jobs than projected as the firm’s sale of panels developed more slowly than anticipated

A former employee of the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity explained to us that the limited success the state has had in luring renewable energy manufacturing firms to Illinois was because in some cases our economic incentives fail to match those of other states and that some states are more centrally located to serve the expanding renewable energy industry.

The Scale Of Wind Turbines
The Micon 530 is second from the left (Mt.Tom)
The GE 1.5 MW units in Dekalb are Like the 4th from the Left
Wind Turbines-Washington Statue

The impact of shale gas on energy prices
by
Robert and Sonia Vogl, Ph.D.s

As oil and coal prices have climbed, natural gas prices have remained relatively low and are are expected to remain so over at least the next five years. Sean Casten, President and CEO of Recycled Energy Development, LLC, has already seen significant shifts in US capital flows favoring natural gas combustion and reducing investments in renewable energy and efficiency in the industrial sector.

The reasons for the shift are based on the fact the huge shale fields have been found in the United States and are being exploited with new technologies. Casten points out that knowing where the gas exists in shale deposits reduces the risk and cost of drilling a conventional well which may not produce commercial gas. While smaller, the shale gas deposits are able to deliver gas to the market more quickly than conventional sources contributing to the glut and depressed prices

Casten challenges the optimistic story of shale gas based on economic considerations. Since shale gas is inexpensive now, increased demand is likely to produce a price increase. If low gas prices undercut demand for coal, companies will switch from coal to natural gas. Since the gas infrastructure is already in place as are natural gas electrical generation facilities, demand for natural gas could quickly rise as would its price.

The relatively low price of $4 to $5 per million cubic feet of gas led to a 10 month low in the number of natural gas drilling rigs in operation and an increase in the number of oil drilling rigs in the U.S. The reduction in gas drilling in the face of a glut suggests supplies will tighten and prices will rise.

As shale gas drilling has expanded so have the concerns about its potential adverse environmental impacts. If drilling and waste water disposal practices are forced to change to accommodate environmental concerns, gas prices would also rise. In Pennsylvania salty wastewaters have been linked to corroded machinery in a steel mill and power plant. Questions have been raised regarding their impact on people and wildlife.

As much as 85% of the waste water and chemicals from the fracking process remain in the ground, raising questions about their impact on ground water supplies.

Another concern is the extent to which the fracking process can produce earthquakes although the industry claims that is not the case. Rady Ananda writes that In Arkansas, nearly 500 earthquakes were reported during the last four months of 2010 in contrast to only 38 in the entire state in 2009. She indicates that 98% of them were near Guy, which has the largest concentration of gas wells.

Now is the time to introduce energy conservation, efficiency and renewable energy sources to homes, public buildings and business operations to avoid the uncertainties of available supplies and prices. It increases energy autonomy, keeps more money in family pockets and the community and reduces vulnerability in swings in energy supplies and prices. It is a good time to become an energy patriot.

Standards, inspections, safety and freedom
by
Robert and Sonia Vogl, Ph.D.s

Early in our careers we heard a presentation from the head of an industry organization whose mission included pushing for national standards in commercial kitchen equipment. Their concern was that variations in local standards prevented firms from manufacturing products that would be acceptable throughout the United States. With national standards, equipment manufacture could be standardized, enabling economies of scale, lowering prices and facilitating the development of national markets.

Variations in standards created a local market for decentralized manufacturing protecting smaller firms, their workers and the local tax base. The development of international standards further undermines local autonomy which was the bedrock of American democracy.

We heard a similar call for national standards from an oil company executive frustrated by local communities blocking oil refineries siting. The executive wanted to build refineries anywhere in the United States which they felt met their marketing needs.

Some wind farm proposals have been shelved, modified or delayed due to local resistance. At a meeting regarding siting a new power line, the spokesperson for the firm declared they were not required by law to seek local support but chose to do so in order to select a route which took into consideration local concerns.

Solar firms are frustrated by variations in local codes, procedures and standards which add costs and slows the installation of systems. The need to secure local permits has been characterized as a critical roadblock to the implementation of a cost effective solar industry.

A recent report issued by SunRun claims that the permitting process can be streamlined and fees reduced without compromising system safety or increasing the work load of local officials. They recommend the Department of Energy lead a new Residential Solar Permitting Initiative which would reward cities that make the most effective, comprehensive permitting improvements.

We have received phone calls from both installers and users of renewable energy systems regarding problems they are facing with county officials in Illinois. State laws exempt renewable energy systems from property taxes as an incentive to their installation and use. Yet some county policies appear to undermine this intent.

One township official assessed the tower supporting a wind generator at 70% of the initial cost of the entire system and has assigned an annual tax of $360/year. The owner has challenged the decision.

Another county is requiring an on site inspection by a structural engineer for any roof installation of a solar system to determine if the roof can support it. The engineer’s fee of $500 was paid without protest as the owner did not want the project delayed.

Local governments pressed for revenues are searching for ways to increase income to cover the costs of their services so such actions are not surprising.

Renewable energy interests are likely to seek relief from local controls. Citizens who feel their interests are threatened will continue to resist some renewable energy installations. If local considerations are ignored public cynicism is certain to increase.

It is time for local governments to develop energy plans so they are not left reacting to outside forces. As the Wall Street banking induced economic crisis demonstrates, placing blind faith in markets has a dark side.

Transporting energy is a growing challenge
by
Robert and Sonia Vogl, Ph.D.s

As demand for energy increases so does the transportation network needed to deliver it to major sources of consumption.

China is facing the problem of internal coal and oil supplies being far away from the areas of increased demand. With China’s rapid economic development and increasing demand for energy, prices will rise as will the global levels of carbon emissions. According to the International Energy Agency, China’s energy demand doubled over the last decade and is expected to soar 75% by 2035. With diminished national supplies, they are seeking energy sources around the world, increasing the need for new energy transportation networks.

Sometimes existing networks are disrupted. The United Kingdom recently warned that nearly two million homes, schools and hospitals still heated with oil may face fuel rationing as ice and snow covered rural roads impede oil deliveries while consumption levels have spiked in the presence of a cold wave.

The rich oil and gas reserves of the Caspian basin were exclusively controlled by the Soviet Union with pipelines moving the energy north and west toward Russia. During some recent winters Russian gas supplies to western Europe running through the Ukraine were reduced to force Ukrainians to pay a higher price.

Western energy interests are developing alternative transportation networks to Turkey, the rest of Europe and the rapidly growing energy markets of China and India. Since oil and gas wells, pipelines and refineries are expensive long term investments, financial interests seek supportive governments and long term contracts to protect their investments. Since pipelines are attractive sites for theft or sabotage, investors also seek military protection.

The development of energy distribution networks changes the landscapes through which they pass, and in the case of oil and gas pipelines imposes additional environmental risks from inevitable breaks in the pipelines. In some cases such as in Colorado, the development of the Rocky Mountain Express pipeline reduced the presence of excess gas in the state and shipped it to the east coast to overcome natural gas shortages there. The pipelines are costly so removal of surplus gas in Colorado raises energy costs there while increasing supplies in the east.

As more oil is sold to China and India and overall supplies dwindle, Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank believes the United States is likely to dramatically decrease its consumption of oil. Americans will be forced to implement energy efficiency measures including the use of hybrid and electric cars. For that to happen battery costs will have to drop from $650/kilowatt hour to $250/kilowatt hour by 2020. Countries will compete to secure a share of the advanced battery and electric car markets.

Rising oil scarcity and prices will stimulate the conversion of natural gas into fuels such as the firm Sasol intends to do by securing an interest in a shale gas field in Canada to convert gas into diesel fuel. The high price of oil and the low price of shale gas makes it financially feasible. If it is successful, additional pipeline capacity is likely to be needed.

As energy transportation networks become longer and more complex, more individuals and communities become increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions over which they have little control. Considering this situation, pursuing energy efficiency and sustainable energy strategies should be a high priority.

Debating a decarbonized economy
by
Robert and Sonia Vogl, Ph.D.s

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, India and China became more open to economic involvements with the United States. Corporations gained access to large numbers of low cost laborers and began outsourcing American jobs to these and other countries. Both manufacturing and professional jobs in the United States were lost reducing employment and income to workers and taxes to units of government.

Later deregulation of the financial sector led to a global economic meltdown followed by a taxpayer bailout of the banks involved. The dramatic increases in military spending combined with tax cuts added to our national debt. The explosion of debt is being used to justify cutting social programs including social security and medicare.

As workers lose their jobs and income, communities and states strapped for cash are laying off workers, reducing pensions, cutting services and raising fees.

Adding to global economic stress is the International Energy Agency’s acknowledgment of peaking of conventional oil. The agency indicates that the world is on an unsustainable energy path. They see decarbonizing energy as essential to curb rising energy prices and prevent serious global environmental damage.

The downward spiral now in motion will be difficult to stop unless Federal government policies focus on rebuilding the American economy. Energy is a crucial element in rebuilding the economy and sure to set off some heated political debates.

Kevin Knobloch, President of the Union of Concerned Scientists, commented on the unprecedented number of climate contrarians swept into office with the November elections. He wonders how we arrived at the point where attacking scientists and their work is acceptable and helps win elections. He points out that successful candidates were backed by oil, coal and electric utility interests.

He quotes Todd Young, a new congressperson from Indiana, as stating that ”...a good portion of the science used to justify “climate change” was a hoax perpetrated by leftist ideologues with an agenda.”

A recent Wall Street Journal editorial in the “Review & Outlook” column expressed dismay that eight leading utility CEOs have defended the EPA’s regulatory efforts to close down old polluting coal power plants as yielding important economic benefits to our economy.

John Rowe, chairman and chief executive of Exelon based in Chicago, is one of the executives defending EPA actions. The editorial points to the economic connections of Exelon to the Obama administration and Rahm Emanuel along with the increased profits that come to their nuclear plants.

The Obama administration is set to roll out a major greenhouse gas policy for power plants, refineries and other industrial plants which would limit their emissions. The EPA is to start implementing the standards on January 2, 2011. House Republicans are vowing to block EPA’s and other regulations which they characterize as “job killing”.

An article by Mark Hertsgaard & Christian Parenti points out that President Obama could initiate a green energy revolution by requiring the Pentagon, Postal Service and other federal agencies to shift their energy purchases to clean sources. Two military reports, More Fight Less Oil and the Quadrennial Defense Review, call for reducing their oil dependence and emphasized the strategic importance of alternatives to hydrocarbons. Will our leaders select the right course of action?